A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
